Russian nuclear roulette

• Published date: 06 March 2023
• Publication title: The Korea Times

Ahead of its widely expected spring offensive in Ukraine, Russia announced its decision to suspend its participation in New START, a landmark nuclear arms control treaty between the United States and Russia, which has recently been extended to Feb. 4, 2026. This decision is the latest in a series of Russian attempts to pressure the West through nuclear blackmail.

The latest blackmail attempt can be understood as an extension of Russia's earlier threat to use nuclear weapons against any country trying to intervene in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These threats remind us of how easily a nuclear war could be triggered that could annihilate humanity. Given the high volatility of the current international security environment, perhaps it is not a surprise that this year's doomsday clock is set at 90 seconds to midnight, the closest ever to a man-made apocalypse.

Seen from a realpolitik perspective, Russia's decision to suspend New START is not a sign of strength but one of weakness as it seems to reflect its growing desperation more than anything. As it stands now, Moscow's desire to end the war quickly is far removed from the reality on the ground. No feasible way out of the war is in sight.

Seen from an arms control perspective, the latest blackmail carries high risks like in Russian roulette: One unlucky shot could ruin too much for Russia as well as the whole world.

First, the suspension of New START would be extremely difficult to sustain in the face of the near-universal outcry by the international community. Indisputably, New START represents the only remaining nuclear arms control treaty between Washington and Moscow. New START plays a critical role in preventing vertical proliferation between the world's two largest nuclear weapon states.

Over the last five decades, multiple measures have been put in place to curb both the deployment and stockpiling of nuclear warheads and their delivery systems. The nuclear arms control architecture has endured tough tests with many ups and downs along the way. Overall, it has contributed tremendously to reducing the number of nuclear weapons from over 70,000 at the peak of the Cold War to around 12,000 at the moment. Throughout this process, START and New START have played the most instrumental roles. Now New START is the only instrument that can make sure this arms reduction process continues into at least 2026 and hopefully beyond. Therefore, Russia will soon begin to feel the rising pressure from the international...