No shortcuts on road to reunification

• Published date: 02 March 2023
• Publication title: The Korea Times

"Reunification can happen suddenly, so only when we are prepared can we realize it," South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said while attending a policy briefing from the unification ministry on Jan. 27. His remarks caused a big stir for suggesting the possibility of the imminent collapse of the current North Korean regime. In fact, it is not unusual to hear presidents from a conservative party say that unification can occur like lightning.

Former President Lee Myung-bak said in June 2011, "Unification might come in the dead of night like a thief." Former President Park Geun-hye in January 2014 used the direct expression that "unification is a jackpot." It is highly irresponsible for such political leaders to say that unification can come suddenly, like winning the lottery, because it can mislead the general public. Such a rapid reunion of the two Koreas is not possible, either logistically or legally.

In order to even imagine reunification happening, one must first presuppose that the North's regime, led by Kim Jong-un, will collapse. The possible scenarios in which the regime collapses could be external military aggression, total economic breakdown, the sudden death of Kim or a massive anti-regime uprising by the North Korean people. But all of these are currently unlikely.

In the past, the U.S. has reviewed scenarios for a preemptive attack on North Korea, such as a surgical operation on its nuclear facilities or a "decapitation strike" on its leader. However, it is hard to imagine such a U.S. attack on North Korea now, at a time when President Joe Biden opposes unilateral changes to the status quo and is wary of an increasingly powerful China. North Korea's possession of nuclear weapons capable of reaching the U.S. mainland also makes such risky operations virtually inconceivable.

It is reported that the current economic situation in North Korea is precarious, but the collapse of the regime due solely to economic problems is not possible. A society as tightly controlled as North Korea's is unlikely to collapse easily. And there is little chance that Kim Jong-un, who is only 39, will die suddenly. Rather, a domino effect involving the confluence of many unpredictable events, like what happened in Europe when the Eastern Bloc imploded in the early 1990s, could create the greatest chance for the downfall of the North's political regime. Internal instability in China, North Korea's blood ally, for instance, would certainly make the regime's hold on power less...