Despite 2 straight losses, Korea still alive, barely

• Published date: 11 March 2023
• Publication title: The Korea Times

Having dropped its first two games of the World Baseball Classic (WBC), South Korea no longer controls its own destiny.

In order to reach the quarterfinals as one of the top two teams in Pool B, South Korea must win its two remaining games and pray for help from other countries.

Korea lost to Australia 8-7, Thursday, and then to Japan 13-4, Friday. It will next play the Czech Republic at noon Sunday and close out the first round against China at 7 p.m. Monday. All games are in the Tokyo Dome.

As unlikely as it may be, there is one scenario in which Korea can still make the quarterfinals.

Japan currently leads the group with two wins and it should cruise past the Czech Republic and Australia to go undefeated.

As of Saturday morning, Australia and the Czech Republic have one win apiece, while Korea and China have two losses each.

For Korea to advance, Japan must win out to finish at 4-0 and South Korea must win its final two games.

This assumes that Australia will lose to Japan. And if Australia falls to the Czech Republic but beats China, then Australia, Korea and the Czechs will all finish at 2-2.

The first tiebreak category is the head-to-head record, but in this particular case, head-to-head matches won't solve the deadlock. They will instead go to a tiebreaking formula: the lowest quotient of earned runs allowed by defensive outs. Simply put, the team with the fewest earned runs surrendered will come out on top.

Through two games, Korea has given up 21 earned runs in 17 defensive innings. As of Saturday morning, Australia had given up seven earned runs in nine innings, and the Czechs had allowed five earned runs in nine.

The final standing could also end up as this: Japan (4-0), Korea (2-2), Czech Republic (2-2), Australia (1-3) and China (1-3). For this to materialize, Australia must...